Latest publications / Forecasting & modelling

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show weaker near-term outlook

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the New Zealand economy. This largely reflects the expected impact of restrictions to contain the latest COVID-19 community outbreak, which turned out to persist for longer than initially expect … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show mixed outlook as uncertainty over the impact of latest COVID-19 community outbreak looms

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the  New  Zealand economy but an upward revision for the subsequent year. The latest community outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to have driven these revisions, as the recent lockdown reduces econo … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show weaker starting point for growth is not expected to persist

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts (CF) show that beyond the weaker starting point for GDP growth, the near-term growth outlook has been revised up. On average, annual average growth in GDP is expected to reach 5 percent in March 2022. Read more

New Zealand's place in the world

New Zealand's place in the world - including flows in trade, people, capital, and ideas - continues to change. This working paper highlights how some of the long-standing memes, which have dominated the local discourse no longer apply in a post-COVID world. In particular New Zealand's … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook over the longer term

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to growth forecasts later this year. However, this partly reflects a higher starting point, as the recovery in demand after lockdown restrictions were relaxed turned out to be stronger than expected. Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show stronger near-term growth

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a substantial upward revision to growth forecasts over the coming year. The consensus is clearly for a ‘V’ shaped economy recovery in New Zealand. Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a wide range of forecasts

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts continues to show a wide range of forecasts for the economy, reflecting a large degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook. The announcement on 11 August of new COVID-19 cases in the community, and the subsequent return of Auckland to Alert Leve … Read more

Economic potential of cloud-based business tools

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NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts showed an even greater degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook ahead. With New Zealand having eliminated the number of active cases of COVID-19 and moving to Alert Level 1 on 8 June, focus now turns to keeping imported cases at bay on the lon … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows growth outlook highly uncertain

Note: Consensus Forecasts were finalised prior to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s emergency OCR cut of 75bp which was announced at 8am this morning. Read more

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