Latest publications / Forecasting & modelling

Assessing housing shortages in New Zealand

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, strong migration-led population growth boosted demand in New Zealand, including for housing. With housing construction slow to respond, the limited supply of new housing moving onto the market exacerbated the housing shortage. Read more

QSBO shows business sentiment and activity taking a turn for the worse - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, January 2023

The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) shows a deterioration in business sentiment and activity. The survey was open from 28 November 2022 to 9 January 2023 and captured the effects of the more hawkish than expected November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) on 23 … Read more

Inflation and rising interest rates remain key headwinds for the economy - Quarterly Predictions, December 2022

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (Inc) Media Release, 29 November 2022 Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show weaker near-term outlook

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the New Zealand economy. This largely reflects the expected impact of restrictions to contain the latest COVID-19 community outbreak, which turned out to persist for longer than initially expect … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show mixed outlook as uncertainty over the impact of latest COVID-19 community outbreak looms

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term outlook for the  New  Zealand economy but an upward revision for the subsequent year. The latest community outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to have driven these revisions, as the recent lockdown reduces econo … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show weaker starting point for growth is not expected to persist

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts (CF) show that beyond the weaker starting point for GDP growth, the near-term growth outlook has been revised up. On average, annual average growth in GDP is expected to reach 5 percent in March 2022. Read more

New Zealand's place in the world

New Zealand's place in the world - including flows in trade, people, capital, and ideas - continues to change. This working paper highlights how some of the long-standing memes, which have dominated the local discourse no longer apply in a post-COVID world. In particular New Zealand's … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook over the longer term

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to growth forecasts later this year. However, this partly reflects a higher starting point, as the recovery in demand after lockdown restrictions were relaxed turned out to be stronger than expected. Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show stronger near-term growth

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a substantial upward revision to growth forecasts over the coming year. The consensus is clearly for a ‘V’ shaped economy recovery in New Zealand. Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a wide range of forecasts

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts continues to show a wide range of forecasts for the economy, reflecting a large degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook. The announcement on 11 August of new COVID-19 cases in the community, and the subsequent return of Auckland to Alert Leve … Read more

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