Workforce forecasts for 2032 : Based on three future scenarios

June 29, 2023

Two reports for the Minstry for Primary Industries.

The Ministry for Primary Industries commissioned NZIER to do some modelling on three possible futures for the food and fibre workforce in 2032, depending on how government and industry act. They're not mutually exclusive and aim to shed light on how the workforce may change over time.

We used  our economy-wide TERM-NZ computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with assumptions based on our 3 possible future scenarios:

  • Future 1: Business as usual
  • Future 2: More technology
  • Future 3: Transformation

We developed the assumption parameters using discussions with food and fibre sector industry representatives. We used workforce data from the year ending 31 March 2020 to forecast through to 2032.

Download the scenarios report here.

What do the models mean?

Although the models provide numbers,  there are seen primarily as a qualitative high-level forecasts of sector trends. They are not trying to predict numbers of workers needed in specific roles, but to highlight the sector impacts of different scenarios. 

For more information and discussion of the modelling, assumptions and results, download the workforce futures report here.