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Quarterly Predictions

Available to NZIER members only.

Issued four times a year, Quarterly Predictions contains detailed and comprehensive forecasts of the New Zealand economy.

The focus of our forecasts are on the composition and drivers of economic growth. Empirical analysis is complemented by an examination of related economic and policy issues, and any risks attached to the forecasts.

The statistical appendix contains historical and forecast numbers for over 300 series, including:

  • Economic growth
  • Inflation, including prices and wages
  • Monetary conditions, including interest rates and exchange rates
  • Retails sales
  • Exports, by sector
  • Building consents
  • Construction, by residential, non-residential & other.

Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

Available to NZIER members only.

Begun in 1961, NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion is New Zealand's longest running and most comprehensive business survey. The resulting indicators are a valuable tool for assessing the current state of the economy and forecasting short term economic activity.

The survey samples manufacturers, builders, architects, wholesalers and retailers, and service sector firms. Information from these industries provides useful indicators of future investment patterns, and the likely direction and composition of economic growth in coming quarters.

Firms are surveyed regarding both their recent experience and expectations for the next three to six months.

Results cover:

  • General business conditions
  • Output, sales and orders
  • Costs, prices and profits
  • Investment levels
  • Staffing levels
  • Difficulty finding skilled and unskilled labour
  • Constraints on production.

Latest member publications

Households and businesses grapple with high inflation and rising interest rates - Quarterly Predictions, June 2023

Households and businesses grapple with high inflation and rising interest rates - Quarterly Predictions, June 2023

May 30, 2023 1 min read
NZIER’s QSBO shows signs of capacity pressures easing in the New Zealand economy - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, April 2023

NZIER’s QSBO shows signs of capacity pressures easing in the New Zealand economy - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, April 2023

April 04, 2023 1 min read
NZIER Consensus Forecasts show much weaker growth in 2024 - March 2023

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show much weaker growth in 2024 - March 2023

March 13, 2023 1 min read