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Quarterly Predictions

Available to NZIER members only.

Issued four times a year, Quarterly Predictions contains detailed and comprehensive forecasts of the New Zealand economy.

The focus of our forecasts are on the composition and drivers of economic growth. Empirical analysis is complemented by an examination of related economic and policy issues, and any risks attached to the forecasts.

The statistical appendix contains historical and forecast numbers for over 300 series, including:

  • Economic growth
  • Inflation, including prices and wages
  • Monetary conditions, including interest rates and exchange rates
  • Retails sales
  • Exports, by sector
  • Building consents
  • Construction, by residential, non-residential & other.

Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

Available to NZIER members only.

Begun in 1961, NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion is New Zealand's longest running and most comprehensive business survey. The resulting indicators are a valuable tool for assessing the current state of the economy and forecasting short term economic activity.

The survey samples manufacturers, builders, architects, wholesalers and retailers, and service sector firms. Information from these industries provides useful indicators of future investment patterns, and the likely direction and composition of economic growth in coming quarters.

Firms are surveyed regarding both their recent experience and expectations for the next three to six months.

Results cover:

  • General business conditions
  • Output, sales and orders
  • Costs, prices and profits
  • Investment levels
  • Staffing levels
  • Difficulty finding skilled and unskilled labour
  • Constraints on production.

Latest member publications

NZIER’s QSBO shows improved business confidence and significant easing in labour shortages - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2023

NZIER’s QSBO shows improved business confidence and significant easing in labour shortages - Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, October 2023

October 03, 2023 1 min read
Slowing global demand clouds New Zealand’s growth outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2023

Slowing global demand clouds New Zealand’s growth outlook - Quarterly Predictions, September 2023

August 29, 2023 2 min read
NZIER Consensus Forecasts point to a slowing in growth over the coming years

NZIER Consensus Forecasts point to a slowing in growth over the coming years

June 12, 2023 1 min read