Latest publications / Public Good publications

Shadow Board is divided over whether the Reserve Bank should increase the OCR in May

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (Inc)  Media release For release 10 am Monday, 22 May 2023 Read more

Unmasking COVID-19’s economic impact: A data-driven analysis of the COVID-19 lockdowns - NZIER working paper 2023-01

COVID-19 has been one of the most significant disruptions to the global economy since the Global Financial Crisis and has changed how we operate. Some trends have returned to normal, but others have permanently changed. Read more

Shadow Board recommends a smaller OCR increase of 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank in April

Shadow Board members recommend a smaller hike in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in the Reserve Bank’s upcoming April Monetary Policy Review. The majority view was an OCR increase of 25 basis points, given inflation pressures are still high in the economy and inflation expectations remai … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show much weaker growth in 2024 - March 2023

  The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show an upward revision to the near-term growth outlook for the New Zealand economy but a downward revision for the subsequent two years. Annual average GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.3 percent for the year to March 2024 before picking up to … Read more

Four ways to improve climate change policy and why - NZIER Insight 106

Climate change is becoming more apparent in the recent succession of major adverse weather events, and New Zealand’s policy on climate change has also stepped up a gear after decades of apparently minimal activity. Looking at the nature of the climate change challenge, the economics o … Read more

Shadow Board recommends the Reserve Bank increases the OCR by 50 basis points in February

Shadow Board members recommend that the Reserve Bank continue increasing the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The broad view was a 50 basis-points increase in the OCR at the Reserve Bank’s February meeting, given inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy remain strong. Only one member r … Read more

Overcoming preconceptions: How big data can gain a social licence in New Zealand - NZIER Insight 105

NZIER Insight 105 is a companion to NZIER Insight 103,  in which we examined how the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), administered by Stats NZ, is used in New Zealand for research and how this is helping us to make better policy decisions. In Insight 105, we examine how the IDI c … Read more

NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a weaker economic outlook for years beyond 2024 - December 2022

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a stronger starting point for the New Zealand economy over the coming year but a downward revision for 2025 and 2026.  Although the economy appears resilient despite the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year, expectations that intere … Read more

2022 Summer Reading List for the Prime Minister

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Shadow Board recommends another large OCR hike in November to reduce domestic inflation pressures

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