Latest publications / Forecasting & modelling (5)

Assessing forecast performance

The Reserve Bank today published a Bulletin article documenting the performance of the Bank’s forecasts over the period 2009 to 2015. Read more

Addressing critical gaps in the government’s open data investments - a Public Good Programme study

Big data – the application of large dataset to generate new insights about how to solve complex problems – has the potential to generate transformational change. New Zealand, like other Governments, has a number of initiatives currently underway to open up New Zealand government-held … Read more

Costly investment decisions require improved population forecasts - NZIER Insight 47

Investing wisely today for the New Zealand of tomorrow requires a detailed understanding of how many people there will be and where we will work and live. Billions of dollars of infrastructure spending are at stake. Yet past estimates of New Zealand's population, on which these invest … Read more

Economic assessment of Chatham Rock Phosphate : input to environmental impact assessment

Chatham Rock Phosphate is investigating a phosphate-mining project (the CRP project). NZIER have been asked to analyse the impacts of the CRP project on the New Zealand economy. This report documents an investigation of the economy-wide, monetary costs and benefits, with further consi … Read more

QSBO as a forecasting tool - NZIER working paper 2011/5

This paper investigates using Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) data to forecast GDP and inflation a year ahead of official data releases using a VAR model and principal component analysis. The key finding is that applying such an approach to QSBO data provides robust predic … Read more

QSBO performance indices : How useful are they?

This paper assesses the predictive power of performance indices, constructed from Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (Q SBO) data, to forecast economic activity. Read more

QSBO bibliography : selected research using the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

NZIER working paper 2004/2 by Robert Buckle and Brian Silverstone. Revised and updated May 2011 Read more

The economic impact of increased irrigation

Read more

A brief history of the QSBO: 1961-2011

NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is one of New Zealand’s leading economic indicators. March 2011 marked the 50th anniversary of the QSBO. The QSBO provides data driven insights into how firms are responding to current economic events. Due to its reliability and resp … Read more

CMDHB : health service needs and labour force projections - implications of a growing and ageing population

In 2005/2006 NZIER undertook a series of studies for Counties Manakau DHB, designed to create informed decisions behind actions to develop the Health Workforce in the DHB's area. The following reports have been published jointly by the DHB and the NZIER and can be accessed via the att … Read more

Subscribe to receive our newsletters