Latest publications / NZIER working paper (3)

Fighting fit? Assessing New Zealand's fiscal sustainability

New Zealand faces a huge fiscal cost from an ageing population so we need to start making tough fiscal decisions now. We have the room to make adjustments and history shows our politicians do respond to increases in debt by adjusting taxes or spending. The sooner changes are made, the … Read more

Appraising transport strategies that induce land use changes : estimating benefits of long-term land use change from standard transport model outputs

This paper develops a cost-benefit appraisal (CBA) methodology to apply to infrastructure strategies that are expected to induce long-run change to land use, population and economic activity ('land use' for short). Read more

Valuing natural assets : essential for decision making

Decisions over whether or not to allow development of natural resources can have a major impact on peoples' lives. For some, a new development means job prospects and a higher standard of living. For others it means pollution, loss of native wildlife and a lower standard of living. Re … Read more

Hi ho silver lining? What firms need to think about as New Zealand ages

As the population ages, a number of economic trends will emerge that put pressure on profits. On the cost side, an increase in competition for skilled workers will push wages up. Revenue will also be affected as demand shifts in favour of products that older people use and consume. Th … Read more

Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand's ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy

New Zealand is ageing. The number of old people will increase three-fold and will soon comprise a very large segment of society. Ageing will shrink the labour supply relative to the size of the population and the existing supply of capital. That has implications for wages and interest … Read more

Grow for it : how population policies can promote economic growth

New Zealand struggles to grow its economy partially due to its small size and remote location. There is little that can be done to change location, but the size can be increased over time. It is feasible to adopt a population policy with the aim of the population reaching 15 million i … Read more

QSBO as a forecasting tool - NZIER working paper 2011/5

This paper investigates using Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) data to forecast GDP and inflation a year ahead of official data releases using a VAR model and principal component analysis. The key finding is that applying such an approach to QSBO data provides robust predic … Read more

QSBO bibliography : selected research using the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

NZIER working paper 2004/2 by Robert Buckle and Brian Silverstone. Revised and updated May 2011 Read more

The evolving NZ-US trade relationship : selected case studies

NZIER contributed the trade and investment chapter of the book Pacific Partners - The future of U.S.-New Zealand Relations, published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC and the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) in Welling … Read more

Does New Zealand have a household saving crisis?  NZIER working paper 2007-01

There is a lot of public concern over household saving in New Zealand. Rising household debt, negative and declining household saving rate, persistent and large current account deficit, heavy reliance on foreign borrowing, “worst savers in the OECD” or claims of similar spirits have r … Read more

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