NZIER Consensus Forecasts suggest a gradual economic recovery over the coming year - September 2026

 The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts point to a broadly unchanged GDP growth outlook, with a forecast annual average GDP growth of 1.7 percent for the year ending March 2027, before it picks up to 2.8 percent in 2028 and 2.9 percent in 2029. Recent Performance of Manufacturing and Performance of Services indicators and the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) suggest that New Zealand’s economic recovery is resuming after being disrupted by the fuel price shock earlier this year. Business and consumer confidence have picked up as fuel prices have recently eased from their peaks. However, the recovery is expected to remain gradual and fragile, with households and businesses still cautious about spending and investment.