NZIER Consensus Forecasts show expectations of a slowing recovery in growth over the coming year

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision in the growth outlook for the years ending March 2026 and March 2027 relative to the previous Consensus Forecasts. Annual GDP is forecast to grow by 0.6 percent on average in 2026 and is expected to pick up to only 1.6 percent in 2027. The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion activity indicators had suggested that the impact of lower interest rates was gaining traction in supporting a gradual recovery since the September quarter. However, the US-Israel war with Iran since the end of February, along with the fuel crisis and heightened uncertainty, presents key headwinds that will likely delay New Zealand’s economic recovery over the coming year.