NZIER Consensus Forecasts show expectations of a recovery in the New Zealand economy over the coming year - March 2026

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show an upward revision in the growth outlook for the year ending March 2027 relative to the previous Consensus Forecasts. Annual GDP is forecast to grow modestly by 0.8 percent in the year ending March 2026, with growth then expected to pick up to 3 percent in 2027. The September quarter GDP result suggests that the New Zealand economy has turned since the contraction in the June quarter. Recent data, including the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion’s  activity indicators, point to a recovery taking shape. These developments support expectations of a continued recovery in activity over the coming year as the effects of lower interest rates gain more traction.