Economic impacts of 2019 Review of Sustainability Measures - East Coast Tarakihi : A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis and forecast model
December 13, 2019
NZIER report to New Zealand Fisheries.
Fisheries New Zealand (FNZ) has asked NZIER to provide economic impact assessments of the proposed Options 1, 2, 31 and 4 relating to the 2019 review of sustainability measures for the East Coast tarakihi (TAR) stock and other fish species caught in association with TAR (referred to as by-catch). The four options are compared against a counter-factual which is the situation prevailing pre-1st October2018. This report provides estimates for the impacts from Options 1, 2, 3 and 4 on catch volumes of tarakihi and its by-catch. While the figures have been reported as annual impacts and could, in theory, be multiplied by the number of years of the respective rebuild periods to better understand the overall impact of each of the options, it is important to understand that the estimates are not forecasts and treating them as such provides only a rough estimate that could over-or under-state the impact. This is because there exists uncertainty around the precise impacts of the proposed catch limits on the wider NZ economy, such as changes in fisher behaviour and the resilience of other industries to indirect impacts over time. However, these estimates do help to quantify the potential economic impacts of a tarakihi TACC decrease. This report also discusses how restrictions on catch can increase the price of the annual catch entitlements (ACE).