Cautious recovery resumes as fuel crisis eases, Quarterly Predictions - September 2026

The New Zealand economy is showing tentative signs of a gradual recovery as global fuel prices ease from the highs reached earlier this year. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, increased use of other export routes in the Middle East, and increased supply from other countries have reduced pressure on global crude oil prices, helping stabilise financial markets and ease some immediate inflation pressures from the fuel shock.

Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.