Disappointing recovery drives further easing in monetary policy, Quarterly Predictions - September 2025

The continued divergence between firms’ optimism about an improvement in the general outlook and current weak trading conditions remains a key theme of the New Zealand economy. Despite a continued improvement in business confidence since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) commenced its monetary policy easing in August last year, lower interest rates have been slow to support a recovery in demand. The disappointing recovery reflects heightened uncertainty weighing on households and firms’ appetite to spend and invest.

Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.