NZIER Consensus Forecasts show much weaker growth in 2024 - March 2023

March 13, 2023


The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show an upward revision to the near-term growth outlook for the New Zealand economy but a downward revision for the subsequent two years. Annual average GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.3 percent for the year to March 2024 before picking up to 1 percent in the following year. Demand has remained resilient in the economy over the past year despite the large increases in the Official Cash rate (OCR). The full dampening impact of OCR increases on demand is expected to reach the broader New Zealand economy as many fixed-term mortgages get repriced onto much higher rates within the coming year. Demand from the post-storm rebuild will likely offset some of this.


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