New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (Inc)
Media Release, Tuesday, 15 April 2026
For immediate release
New Zealand’s economy is already being reshaped by population ageing, with older people driving major shifts in work, spending, tax revenue, and long‑term growth, according to NZIER’s Business of Ageing 2026 report released today.
NZIER Associate Todd Krieble says more than a decade of consistent analysis now makes the trend unmistakable.
“Older people are contributing across almost every part of the economy, and at a scale that is frequently underestimated,” Krieble says.
“Population change is accelerating. The evidence shows that this is not simply a fiscal trend. It is a structural economic shift with long-term implications for labour supply, productivity and demand.”
The report estimates that paid work by people aged 65 and over is currently valued at nearly $9 billion annually, with self-employment income contributing approximately $5 billion.
According to the projections, earnings from paid work are expected to increase from around $8.7 billion in 2024 to more than $50 billion by 2074, while self-employment income rises from $5.1 billion to $29.3 billion over the same period.
The number of employed people aged 65 and over is projected to more than double, from 217,400 in 2024 to 477,800 by 2074, increasing their share of the national workforce from 7.1% to 10.9%.
The modelling also highlights the growing fiscal and consumption footprint of older New Zealanders. Total tax contributions are projected to increase from $13.1 billion in 2024 to around $80.1 billion by 2074.
Unpaid work by older people, including caregiving, volunteering, and household production, is already valued at around $20 billion annually, and could rise to as much as $138 billion annually by 2074.
“The key takeaway is that ageing is reshaping the economy now,” Krieble said. “The question is not whether ageing will affect economic performance. It already is. The more relevant question is how policy, business strategy, and workforce settings respond.”
The Business of Ageing series provides comprehensive, consistent, evidence-based insights into the economic role of older people in New Zealand. The 2026 report updates long-term projections and analysis to reflect current labour market trends, spending patterns, and demographic change.
The full report is available at www.officeforseniors.govt.nz/businessofageing