---
title: Line-ball call for keeping OCR unchanged in July, but the Shadow Board still sees higher interest rates as appropriate for the coming year
description: Shadow Board members, on balance of strength of view, recommend the RBNZ keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent in July
---

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# [Line-ball call for keeping OCR unchanged in July, but the Shadow Board still sees higher interest rates as appropriate for the coming year](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/line-ball-call-for-keeping-ocr-unchanged-in-july-but-the-shadow-board-still-sees-higher-interest-rates-as-appropriate-for-the-coming-year)

 Written by [The NZIER Team](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/author/the-nzier-team) | July 05, 2026

There is a split of views amongst the NZIER *Monetary Policy Shadow Board* regarding the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the upcoming July *Monetary Policy Review*. *Shadow Board* members, on balance of strength of view, recommend the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent in July. However, it has become a line-ball call in terms of whether the RBNZ should keep the OCR on hold or raise it by 25 basis points in the July meeting. Rising inflation was a key reason given by members who want the OCR moved back towards neutral sooner rather than later. There was a range of views on the effect of the oil price shock on inflation and the New Zealand economy over the next year.

[View full post](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/line-ball-call-for-keeping-ocr-unchanged-in-july-but-the-shadow-board-still-sees-higher-interest-rates-as-appropriate-for-the-coming-year)

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