---
title: Fuel crisis throws New Zealand recovery off track, Quarterly Predictions - June 2026
description: The New Zealand economy had been showing signs of recovery in early 2026, but the global fuel crisis sparked by the US-Israel-Iran war has thrown this recovery off track.
---

[Latest News ](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news)

# [Fuel crisis throws New Zealand recovery off track, Quarterly Predictions - June 2026](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/fuel-crisis-throws-new-zealand-recovery-off-track-quarterly-predictions-june-2026)

 Written by [The NZIER Team](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/author/the-nzier-team) | June 02, 2026

The New Zealand economy had been showing signs of recovery in early 2026, but the global fuel crisis sparked by the US-Israel-Iran war has thrown this recovery off track. Higher fuel prices are pushing up inflation and weighing on household and business confidence, increasing caution around spending, hiring and investment. The latest NZIER **Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion** showed a marked deterioration in business confidence as the fuel crisis escalated.

*Quarterly Predictions* is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to [NZIER’s members](https://www.nzier.org.nz/membership). 

[View full post](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/fuel-crisis-throws-new-zealand-recovery-off-track-quarterly-predictions-june-2026)

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