The New Zealand economy had been showing signs of recovery in early 2026, but the global fuel crisis sparked by the US-Israel-Iran war has thrown this recovery off track. Higher fuel prices are pushing up inflation and weighing on household and business confidence, increasing caution around spending, hiring and investment. The latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed a marked deterioration in business confidence as the fuel crisis escalated.
Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members.