---
title: Fragile recovery continues amid global uncertainty and soft demand, Quarterly Predictions - June 2025
description: The New Zealand economy remains on a fragile path to recovery, supported by lower interest rates and improving household sentiment.
---

[Latest News ](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news)

# [Fragile recovery continues amid global uncertainty and soft demand, Quarterly Predictions - June 2025](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/fragile-recovery-continues-amid-global-uncertainty-and-soft-demand)

 Written by [The NZIER Team](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/author/the-nzier-team) | May 27, 2025

The New Zealand economy remains on a fragile path to recovery, supported by lower interest rates and improving household sentiment. However, recent volatility in global markets following the US-China tariff conflict has heightened uncertainty, posing fresh risks to New Zealand’s growth outlook

*Quarterly Predictions* is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to [NZIER’s members](https://www.nzier.org.nz/membership). 

[View full post](https://www.nzier.org.nz/news/fragile-recovery-continues-amid-global-uncertainty-and-soft-demand)

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