2004 NZIER Economics Award winner
The NZIER Economics Award for 2004 is awarded to Grant Scobie.
There can be few topics of more general importance in economics today than the study of the implications of population ageing. A reputable journal recently suggested that “The rise in the proportion of the world’s old will be the century’s defining demographic trend. In some countries it may also determine the nature of politics, rates of economic growth … and global clout”. The impact of the expected bulge in the numbers of those retiring from work is likely to be aggravated by a trend to falling rates of fertility. These two trends are affected by human beings’ increasing life expectancy rates, staving off what a Roman poet called “the roaring of the hungry stream of death” for longer periods.
It has been argued that, until recently, the debate surrounding retirement income policies in New Zealand has lacked a sound foundation of fact and analysis on which to base policy development. Without data, the analysis of alternative possibilities, and the evaluation of the importance of specific factors, must be restricted.
The recipient of this year’s Award has made a very substantial contribution, through research, analysis and communication, to providing that sound foundation. Through his work, New Zealand now has a much improved understanding of the impacts of both the ageing population and savings behaviour. It also has a basis for evaluating the adequacy of household savings for retirement. His work, as evidenced especially in a substantial series of published working papers, has been wide-ranging and innovative, and has drawn on analysis on the frontiers of the relevant international literature. It has already contributed to better policy design in New Zealand.
This applied economic analysis, however, has been built on sensitivity to theoretical advance, and on careful assessment and use of data. These scholastic approaches stem from the recipient’s long and influential involvement in agricultural economics, particularly with reference to New Zealand and developing countries. He has worked in New Zealand universities, and overseas in specialist agencies, on research devoted to agricultural economics, especially with respect to international food policy and tropical agriculture. For four years, he headed an international centre for tropical agriculture in Colombia. His written work on these topics is very substantial, providing support to the arguments that liberalisation of agricultural trade could be managed within the parameters of the GATT, that it would add to food security rather than diminish it, and that it would promote growth in developing countries rather than create barriers to it. His role in reviewing the system which has evolved around the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research has been internationally significant. It has also had substantial influence in New Zealand, directly through impact on research carried out through Crown Research Institutes, and indirectly through his mentoring of colleagues and students in this area. His achievement in these fields, and the likelihood that it will continue to have lasting influence on research and policy in applied economics related to agriculture in New Zealand, may well be of equal significance to his work on population ageing and savings behaviour.
Acceptance speech by Dr Scobie
